The fatality rate analysis——What factors might be risky in the COVID-19?
The novel coronavirus is also known as COVID-19. Recently, infectious disease experts in the United States have reached a consensus that it is an uncontrollable virus. COVID-19 is very different from the SARS and MERS viruses in that it has a high transmission rate between people.
The SARS and MERS viruses are controlled because they are transmitted strongly only between animals and humans. It is limited between humans. Therefore, as long as people are restricted from contacting infected animals, they can be effectively controlled. But the situation is clearly different now.
The COVID-19 is similar to the 2009 H1N1 virus which infected 1 billion people worldwide in 6 months. But now the transmission rate of the COVID-19 is stronger than H1N1. What we saw is just the initial stage of virus transmission.
In fact, there are many types of coronaviruses, and everyone has been more or less infected with it. 15-25% of common cold viruses are caused by coronaviruses. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 is more serious than ordinary coronaviruses. The case fatality rate is 0.5-2% (compared to seasonal influenza 0.1%). The experts from The Unite States speculate that it will become like any other coronavirus that causes the flu.
At present, we want to analyze the case fatality rate of new coronaviruses. For comparison, we should first understand the previous virus risks. Survey data shows the case fatality rate from other virus. The case fatality rate of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were higher at 10% and 34%, respectively.
As for the epidemic prevention situation, the decline of new cases in China shows that China has taken effective prevention and control measures on time. However, the situation abroad is not that optimistic. American experts predict that 20-60% of the US population will be infected with the virus within 18 months. Experts predict the best result is that 20% of the 340 million people in the United States would be infected and have a 0.5% fatality rate. It will cause 340,000 death. The worse result is that 60% of the population is infected and has a 1% fatality rate, which will cause 2,040,000 deaths.
According to Our World Data, it shows that the fatality rate for people under 40 is low at 0.2%. The fatality rate for people between 50 and 59 is several times higher than 1%, the risk for people between 60 and 80 is 3.6-8%, and the risk for people over 80 is as high as 14.8%. It can be seen that older people are at greater risk of infection and need to be more alert to the virus as they become less resistant.
Besides age, what other factors will increase the fatality rate? According to the survey data, the fatality rate of patients with cardiovascular diseases infected with COVID-19 was 10.5%, while the patients with diabetes were 7.3%, chronic respiratory diseases were 6.3%, hypertension was 6%, and cancer was 5.6%. Compared with the fatality rate of people without disease infected with COVID-19 was 0.9%. Other data shows that the death rate for middle-aged men who smoke is 8-10%, compared with less than 2% for non-smoking women of the same age. This means that people in their 50s and 60s who like to smoke need to worry about the risks. If you have hyperglycemia or hypertension, this will be a very urgent situation.